Validation of PAGE-B model in Asian chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir

Mi Na Kim, Seong Gyu Hwang, Kyu Sung Rim, Beom Kyung Kim, Jun Yong Park, Do Young Kim, Sang Hoon Ahn, Kwang Hyub Han, Seung Up Kim

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37 Citations (Scopus)


Background & Aims: A new hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model, PAGE-B, which includes age, gender and platelet count as constituent variables, has recently been proposed in Caucasian chronic hepatitis B patients. We validated PAGE-B model and compared its accuracy with that of conventional risk prediction models in Asian chronic hepatitis B patients. Methods: Chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir were consecutively recruited. The performance of PAGE-B and three conventional risk prediction models (CU-HCC, GAG-HCC and REACH-B) were analysed. Results: A total of 1092 chronic hepatitis B patients (668 men, 61.2%) were selected between August 2006 and January 2015. The mean age was 48 years. During the follow-up period (median, 43.6 months), 36 (3.3%) patients developed hepatocellular carcinoma. Older age (hazard ratio [HR]=1.077), male gender (HR=3.676) and lower platelet count (HR=0.984) were independent predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma development. The PAGE-B showed similar area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to GAG-HCC and CU-HCC at 3 years (0.777 vs 0.793 and 0.743, respectively; all P>.05) and 5 years (0.799 vs 0.803 and 0.744, respectively; all P>.05), whereas the AUROCs of PAGE-B were significantly higher than those of the REACH-B (0.602 at 3 years and 0.572 at 5 years, P<.05). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that PAGE-B is applicable to Asian chronic hepatitis B patients receiving ETV or TDF therapy. The PAGE-B showed similar predictive performance to GAG-HCC and CU-HCC.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1788-1795
Number of pages8
JournalLiver International
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - 2017 Dec

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Hepatology


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