The utility of simulations of Global Climate Models (GCMs) for regional water resources prediction and management on the Korean Peninsula was assessed by a probabilistic measure. Global Climate Model simulations of an indicator variable (e.g. surface precipitation or temperature) were used for discriminating high vs low regional observations of a target variable (e.g. watershed precipitation or reservoir inflow). The formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two distributions. High resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-II (AMIP-II) type GCM simulations performed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and AMIP-I type GCM simulations performed by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) were used to obtain information for the indicator variables. Observed mean areal precipitation and temperature, and watershed-outlet discharge values for seven major river basins in Korea were used as the target variables. The results suggest that the use of the climate model nodal output from both climate models in the vicinity of the target basin with monthly resolution will be beneficial for water resources planning and management analysis that depends on watershed mean areal precipitation and temperature, and outlet discharge.
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Acknowledgements This research was supported by a Grant (1-3-1) from Sustainable Water Resources Research Center of 21st Century Frontier Research Program. The authors wish to thank Dr Wontae Kwon of the Meteorological Research Institute of the Korean Meteorological Administration for providing the GCM data used in this work, and the Editor and three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments that helped improve the readability of this paper.
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Water Science and Technology