The global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 by continents and national income: A meta-analysis

Ramy Abou Ghayda; Keum Hwa Lee; Young Joo Han; Seohyun Ryu; Sung Hwi Hong; Sojung Yoon; Gwang Hum Jeong; Jae Won Yang; Hyo Jeong Lee; Jinhee Lee; Jun Young Lee; Maria Effenberger; Michael Eisenhut; Andreas Kronbichler; Marco Solmi; Han Li; Louis Jacob; Ai Koyanagi; Joaquim Radua; Myung Bae Park; Sevda Aghayeva; Mohamed L.C.B. Ahmed; Abdulwahed Al Serouri; Humaid O. Al-Shamsi; Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami; Oidov Baatarkhuu; Hyam Bashour; Anastasiia Bondarenko; Adrian Camacho-Ortiz; Franz Castro; Horace Cox; Hayk Davtyan; Kirk Douglas; Elena Dragioti; Shahul Ebrahim; Martina Ferioli; Harapan Harapan; Saad I. Mallah; Aamer Ikram; Shigeru Inoue; Slobodan Jankovic; Umesh Jayarajah; Milos Jesenak; Pramath Kakodkar; Yohannes Kebede; Meron Kifle; David Koh; Visnja K. Males; Katarzyna Kotfis; Sulaiman Lakoh; Lowell Ling; Jorge Llibre-Guerra; Masaki Machida; Richard Makurumidze; Mohammed A. Mamun; Izet Masic; Hoang Van Minh; Sergey Moiseev; Thomas Nadasdy; Chen Nahshon; Silvio A. Ñamendys-Silva; Blaise N. Yongsi; Henning B. Nielsen; Zita A. Nodjikouambaye; Ohnmar Ohnmar; Atte Oksanen; Oluwatomi Owopetu; Konstantinos Parperis; Gonzalo E. Perez; Krit Pongpirul; Marius Rademaker; Sandro Rosa; Ranjit Sah; Dina Sallam; Patrick Schober; Tanu Singhal; Silva Tafaj; Irene Torres; J. Smith Torres-Roman; Dimitrios Tsartsalis; Jadamba Tsolmon; Laziz Tuychiev; Batric Vukcevic; Guy Wanghi; Uwe Wollina; Ren He Xu; Lin Yang; Zoubida Zaidi; Lee Smith; Jae Il Shin

doi:10.1002/jmv.27610

The global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 by continents and national income: A meta-analysis

Ramy Abou Ghayda, Keum Hwa Lee, Young Joo Han, Seohyun Ryu, Sung Hwi Hong, Sojung Yoon, Gwang Hum Jeong, Jae Won Yang, Hyo Jeong Lee, Jinhee Lee, Jun Young Lee, Maria Effenberger, Michael Eisenhut, Andreas Kronbichler, Marco Solmi, Han Li, Louis Jacob, Ai Koyanagi, Joaquim Radua, Myung Bae ParkSevda Aghayeva, Mohamed L.C.B. Ahmed, Abdulwahed Al Serouri, Humaid O. Al-Shamsi, Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami, Oidov Baatarkhuu, Hyam Bashour, Anastasiia Bondarenko, Adrian Camacho-Ortiz, Franz Castro, Horace Cox, Hayk Davtyan, Kirk Douglas, Elena Dragioti, Shahul Ebrahim, Martina Ferioli, Harapan Harapan, Saad I. Mallah, Aamer Ikram, Shigeru Inoue, Slobodan Jankovic, Umesh Jayarajah, Milos Jesenak, Pramath Kakodkar, Yohannes Kebede, Meron Kifle, David Koh, Visnja K. Males, Katarzyna Kotfis, Sulaiman Lakoh, Lowell Ling, Jorge Llibre-Guerra, Masaki Machida, Richard Makurumidze, Mohammed A. Mamun, Izet Masic, Hoang Van Minh, Sergey Moiseev, Thomas Nadasdy, Chen Nahshon, Silvio A. Ñamendys-Silva, Blaise N. Yongsi, Henning B. Nielsen, Zita A. Nodjikouambaye, Ohnmar Ohnmar, Atte Oksanen, Oluwatomi Owopetu, Konstantinos Parperis, Gonzalo E. Perez, Krit Pongpirul, Marius Rademaker, Sandro Rosa, Ranjit Sah, Dina Sallam, Patrick Schober, Tanu Singhal, Silva Tafaj, Irene Torres, J. Smith Torres-Roman, Dimitrios Tsartsalis, Jadamba Tsolmon, Laziz Tuychiev, Batric Vukcevic, Guy Wanghi, Uwe Wollina, Ren He Xu, Lin Yang, Zoubida Zaidi, Lee Smith, Jae Il Shin

Department of Pediatrics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate representation of COVID-19's case fatality rate (CFR) by performing meta-analyses by continents and income, and by comparing the result with pooled estimates. We used multiple worldwide data sources on COVID-19 for every country reporting COVID-19 cases. On the basis of data, we performed random and fixed meta-analyses for CFR of COVID-19 by continents and income according to each individual calendar date. CFR was estimated based on the different geographical regions and levels of income using three models: pooled estimates, fixed- and random-model. In Asia, all three types of CFR initially remained approximately between 2.0% and 3.0%. In the case of pooled estimates and the fixed model results, CFR increased to 4.0%, by then gradually decreasing, while in the case of random-model, CFR remained under 2.0%. Similarly, in Europe, initially, the two types of CFR peaked at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively. The random-model results showed an increase near 5.0%. In high-income countries, pooled estimates and fixed-model showed gradually increasing trends with a final pooled estimates and random-model reached about 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively. In middle-income, the pooled estimates and fixed-model have gradually increased reaching up to 4.5%. in low-income countries, CFRs remained similar between 1.5% and 3.0%. Our study emphasizes that COVID-19 CFR is not a fixed or static value. Rather, it is a dynamic estimate that changes with time, population, socioeconomic factors, and the mitigatory efforts of individual countries.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2402-2413
Number of pages	12
Journal	Journal of Medical Virology
Volume	94
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.27610
Publication status	Published - 2022 Jun

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The case fatality rate (CFR) meta-analyses of COVID-19 according to continents and income on this study are novel and have not been published before, but a part of this study on the global CFR meta-analysis by calendar date was somewhat overlapped with the authors' previous work which was published in August 2020 in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Wiley Periodicals LLC.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Infectious Diseases
Virology

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1002/jmv.27610

Cite this

Abou Ghayda, R., Lee, K. H., Han, Y. J., Ryu, S., Hong, S. H., Yoon, S., Jeong, G. H., Yang, JW., Lee, H. J., Lee, J., Lee, J. Y., Effenberger, M., Eisenhut, M., Kronbichler, A., Solmi, M., Li, H., Jacob, L., Koyanagi, A., Radua, J., ... Shin, J. I. (2022). The global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 by continents and national income: A meta-analysis. Journal of Medical Virology, 94(6), 2402-2413. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.27610

@article{ec105131e85b41a4b3a3fefc556d9a04,

title = "The global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 by continents and national income: A meta-analysis",

abstract = "The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate representation of COVID-19's case fatality rate (CFR) by performing meta-analyses by continents and income, and by comparing the result with pooled estimates. We used multiple worldwide data sources on COVID-19 for every country reporting COVID-19 cases. On the basis of data, we performed random and fixed meta-analyses for CFR of COVID-19 by continents and income according to each individual calendar date. CFR was estimated based on the different geographical regions and levels of income using three models: pooled estimates, fixed- and random-model. In Asia, all three types of CFR initially remained approximately between 2.0% and 3.0%. In the case of pooled estimates and the fixed model results, CFR increased to 4.0%, by then gradually decreasing, while in the case of random-model, CFR remained under 2.0%. Similarly, in Europe, initially, the two types of CFR peaked at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively. The random-model results showed an increase near 5.0%. In high-income countries, pooled estimates and fixed-model showed gradually increasing trends with a final pooled estimates and random-model reached about 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively. In middle-income, the pooled estimates and fixed-model have gradually increased reaching up to 4.5%. in low-income countries, CFRs remained similar between 1.5% and 3.0%. Our study emphasizes that COVID-19 CFR is not a fixed or static value. Rather, it is a dynamic estimate that changes with time, population, socioeconomic factors, and the mitigatory efforts of individual countries.",

author = "{Abou Ghayda}, Ramy and Lee, {Keum Hwa} and Han, {Young Joo} and Seohyun Ryu and Hong, {Sung Hwi} and Sojung Yoon and Jeong, {Gwang Hum} and Jae Won Yang and Lee, {Hyo Jeong} and Jinhee Lee and Lee, {Jun Young} and Maria Effenberger and Michael Eisenhut and Andreas Kronbichler and Marco Solmi and Han Li and Louis Jacob and Ai Koyanagi and Joaquim Radua and Park, {Myung Bae} and Sevda Aghayeva and Ahmed, {Mohamed L.C.B.} and {Al Serouri}, Abdulwahed and Al-Shamsi, {Humaid O.} and Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami and Oidov Baatarkhuu and Hyam Bashour and Anastasiia Bondarenko and Adrian Camacho-Ortiz and Franz Castro and Horace Cox and Hayk Davtyan and Kirk Douglas and Elena Dragioti and Shahul Ebrahim and Martina Ferioli and Harapan Harapan and Mallah, {Saad I.} and Aamer Ikram and Shigeru Inoue and Slobodan Jankovic and Umesh Jayarajah and Milos Jesenak and Pramath Kakodkar and Yohannes Kebede and Meron Kifle and David Koh and Males, {Visnja K.} and Katarzyna Kotfis and Sulaiman Lakoh and Lowell Ling and Jorge Llibre-Guerra and Masaki Machida and Richard Makurumidze and Mamun, {Mohammed A.} and Izet Masic and {Van Minh}, Hoang and Sergey Moiseev and Thomas Nadasdy and Chen Nahshon and {\~N}amendys-Silva, {Silvio A.} and Yongsi, {Blaise N.} and Nielsen, {Henning B.} and Nodjikouambaye, {Zita A.} and Ohnmar Ohnmar and Atte Oksanen and Oluwatomi Owopetu and Konstantinos Parperis and Perez, {Gonzalo E.} and Krit Pongpirul and Marius Rademaker and Sandro Rosa and Ranjit Sah and Dina Sallam and Patrick Schober and Tanu Singhal and Silva Tafaj and Irene Torres and Torres-Roman, {J. Smith} and Dimitrios Tsartsalis and Jadamba Tsolmon and Laziz Tuychiev and Batric Vukcevic and Guy Wanghi and Uwe Wollina and Xu, {Ren He} and Lin Yang and Zoubida Zaidi and Lee Smith and Shin, {Jae Il}",

note = "Funding Information: The case fatality rate (CFR) meta-analyses of COVID-19 according to continents and income on this study are novel and have not been published before, but a part of this study on the global CFR meta-analysis by calendar date was somewhat overlapped with the authors' previous work which was published in August 2020 in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 Wiley Periodicals LLC.",

year = "2022",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1002/jmv.27610",

language = "English",

volume = "94",

pages = "2402--2413",

journal = "Journal of Medical Virology",

issn = "0146-6615",

publisher = "Wiley-Liss Inc.",

number = "6",

}

Abou Ghayda, R, Lee, KH, Han, YJ, Ryu, S, Hong, SH, Yoon, S, Jeong, GH, Yang, JW, Lee, HJ, Lee, J, Lee, JY, Effenberger, M, Eisenhut, M, Kronbichler, A, Solmi, M, Li, H, Jacob, L, Koyanagi, A, Radua, J, Park, MB, Aghayeva, S, Ahmed, MLCB, Al Serouri, A, Al-Shamsi, HO, Amir-Behghadami, M, Baatarkhuu, O, Bashour, H, Bondarenko, A, Camacho-Ortiz, A, Castro, F, Cox, H, Davtyan, H, Douglas, K, Dragioti, E, Ebrahim, S, Ferioli, M, Harapan, H, Mallah, SI, Ikram, A, Inoue, S, Jankovic, S, Jayarajah, U, Jesenak, M, Kakodkar, P, Kebede, Y, Kifle, M, Koh, D, Males, VK, Kotfis, K, Lakoh, S, Ling, L, Llibre-Guerra, J, Machida, M, Makurumidze, R, Mamun, MA, Masic, I, Van Minh, H, Moiseev, S, Nadasdy, T, Nahshon, C, Ñamendys-Silva, SA, Yongsi, BN, Nielsen, HB, Nodjikouambaye, ZA, Ohnmar, O, Oksanen, A, Owopetu, O, Parperis, K, Perez, GE, Pongpirul, K, Rademaker, M, Rosa, S, Sah, R, Sallam, D, Schober, P, Singhal, T, Tafaj, S, Torres, I, Torres-Roman, JS, Tsartsalis, D, Tsolmon, J, Tuychiev, L, Vukcevic, B, Wanghi, G, Wollina, U, Xu, RH, Yang, L, Zaidi, Z, Smith, L & Shin, JI 2022, 'The global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 by continents and national income: A meta-analysis', Journal of Medical Virology, vol. 94, no. 6, pp. 2402-2413. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.27610

TY - JOUR

T1 - The global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 by continents and national income

T2 - A meta-analysis

AU - Abou Ghayda, Ramy

AU - Lee, Keum Hwa

AU - Han, Young Joo

AU - Ryu, Seohyun

AU - Hong, Sung Hwi

AU - Yoon, Sojung

AU - Jeong, Gwang Hum

AU - Yang, Jae Won

AU - Lee, Hyo Jeong

AU - Lee, Jinhee

AU - Lee, Jun Young

AU - Effenberger, Maria

AU - Eisenhut, Michael

AU - Kronbichler, Andreas

AU - Solmi, Marco

AU - Li, Han

AU - Jacob, Louis

AU - Koyanagi, Ai

AU - Radua, Joaquim

AU - Park, Myung Bae

AU - Aghayeva, Sevda

AU - Ahmed, Mohamed L.C.B.

AU - Al Serouri, Abdulwahed

AU - Al-Shamsi, Humaid O.

AU - Amir-Behghadami, Mehrdad

AU - Baatarkhuu, Oidov

AU - Bashour, Hyam

AU - Bondarenko, Anastasiia

AU - Camacho-Ortiz, Adrian

AU - Castro, Franz

AU - Cox, Horace

AU - Davtyan, Hayk

AU - Douglas, Kirk

AU - Dragioti, Elena

AU - Ebrahim, Shahul

AU - Ferioli, Martina

AU - Harapan, Harapan

AU - Mallah, Saad I.

AU - Ikram, Aamer

AU - Inoue, Shigeru

AU - Jankovic, Slobodan

AU - Jayarajah, Umesh

AU - Jesenak, Milos

AU - Kakodkar, Pramath

AU - Kebede, Yohannes

AU - Kifle, Meron

AU - Koh, David

AU - Males, Visnja K.

AU - Kotfis, Katarzyna

AU - Lakoh, Sulaiman

AU - Ling, Lowell

AU - Llibre-Guerra, Jorge

AU - Machida, Masaki

AU - Makurumidze, Richard

AU - Mamun, Mohammed A.

AU - Masic, Izet

AU - Van Minh, Hoang

AU - Moiseev, Sergey

AU - Nadasdy, Thomas

AU - Nahshon, Chen

AU - Ñamendys-Silva, Silvio A.

AU - Yongsi, Blaise N.

AU - Nielsen, Henning B.

AU - Nodjikouambaye, Zita A.

AU - Ohnmar, Ohnmar

AU - Oksanen, Atte

AU - Owopetu, Oluwatomi

AU - Parperis, Konstantinos

AU - Perez, Gonzalo E.

AU - Pongpirul, Krit

AU - Rademaker, Marius

AU - Rosa, Sandro

AU - Sah, Ranjit

AU - Sallam, Dina

AU - Schober, Patrick

AU - Singhal, Tanu

AU - Tafaj, Silva

AU - Torres, Irene

AU - Torres-Roman, J. Smith

AU - Tsartsalis, Dimitrios

AU - Tsolmon, Jadamba

AU - Tuychiev, Laziz

AU - Vukcevic, Batric

AU - Wanghi, Guy

AU - Wollina, Uwe

AU - Xu, Ren He

AU - Yang, Lin

AU - Zaidi, Zoubida

AU - Smith, Lee

AU - Shin, Jae Il

N1 - Funding Information: The case fatality rate (CFR) meta-analyses of COVID-19 according to continents and income on this study are novel and have not been published before, but a part of this study on the global CFR meta-analysis by calendar date was somewhat overlapped with the authors' previous work which was published in August 2020 in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Wiley Periodicals LLC.

PY - 2022/6

Y1 - 2022/6

N2 - The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate representation of COVID-19's case fatality rate (CFR) by performing meta-analyses by continents and income, and by comparing the result with pooled estimates. We used multiple worldwide data sources on COVID-19 for every country reporting COVID-19 cases. On the basis of data, we performed random and fixed meta-analyses for CFR of COVID-19 by continents and income according to each individual calendar date. CFR was estimated based on the different geographical regions and levels of income using three models: pooled estimates, fixed- and random-model. In Asia, all three types of CFR initially remained approximately between 2.0% and 3.0%. In the case of pooled estimates and the fixed model results, CFR increased to 4.0%, by then gradually decreasing, while in the case of random-model, CFR remained under 2.0%. Similarly, in Europe, initially, the two types of CFR peaked at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively. The random-model results showed an increase near 5.0%. In high-income countries, pooled estimates and fixed-model showed gradually increasing trends with a final pooled estimates and random-model reached about 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively. In middle-income, the pooled estimates and fixed-model have gradually increased reaching up to 4.5%. in low-income countries, CFRs remained similar between 1.5% and 3.0%. Our study emphasizes that COVID-19 CFR is not a fixed or static value. Rather, it is a dynamic estimate that changes with time, population, socioeconomic factors, and the mitigatory efforts of individual countries.

AB - The aim of this study is to provide a more accurate representation of COVID-19's case fatality rate (CFR) by performing meta-analyses by continents and income, and by comparing the result with pooled estimates. We used multiple worldwide data sources on COVID-19 for every country reporting COVID-19 cases. On the basis of data, we performed random and fixed meta-analyses for CFR of COVID-19 by continents and income according to each individual calendar date. CFR was estimated based on the different geographical regions and levels of income using three models: pooled estimates, fixed- and random-model. In Asia, all three types of CFR initially remained approximately between 2.0% and 3.0%. In the case of pooled estimates and the fixed model results, CFR increased to 4.0%, by then gradually decreasing, while in the case of random-model, CFR remained under 2.0%. Similarly, in Europe, initially, the two types of CFR peaked at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively. The random-model results showed an increase near 5.0%. In high-income countries, pooled estimates and fixed-model showed gradually increasing trends with a final pooled estimates and random-model reached about 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively. In middle-income, the pooled estimates and fixed-model have gradually increased reaching up to 4.5%. in low-income countries, CFRs remained similar between 1.5% and 3.0%. Our study emphasizes that COVID-19 CFR is not a fixed or static value. Rather, it is a dynamic estimate that changes with time, population, socioeconomic factors, and the mitigatory efforts of individual countries.

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