Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models

James A. Anstey, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Hiroaki Naoe, Masakazu Taguchi, Federico Serva, Lesley J. Gray, Neal Butchart, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Andrew C. Bushell, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih Chieh Chen, Hye Yeong Chun, Rolando R. Garcia, Laura Holt, Yoshio Kawatani, Tobias KerzenmacherYoung Ha Kim, Francois Lott, Charles McLandress, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, Seiji Yukimoto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1568-1592
Number of pages25
JournalQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Volume148
Issue number744
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022 Apr 1

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Crown copyright. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

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