Structural changes in developing countries and their implication for energy-related CO₂ emissions

The concept of 'structural shifts' has various meanings. In this study, we discuss structural shifts as they relate to the issue of climate change. The concept of 'Sustainable Development' is emerging as one of the major challenges for economic development. Although the 20th century has generally been recognized as the era of 'competition of ideologies,' it is widely believed that the new international economic order of the 21st century will emerge under the paradigm of sustainable development. In this sense, structural shifts may be redefined for both developed and developing countries. To envisage shifts in the next century, several key-driving forces must be considered. First is the utilization of the natural endowments of a country, including climate and natural resources. Second is the size of land and population, population growth trends, and population composition. Patterns of urbanization, economic, and industrial structures, technological diffusion, and institutional and legal mechanisms are closely related to the patterns and strategies for economic development in each country as part of the new international economic order. We assess the dynamics of structural shifts through the interaction of all these driving forces. This paper examines historical development patterns and common features of developed countries to analyze both developed and developing countries' future adaptation processes to the new global concerns of climate change. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.