Stay until you are told to evacuate: Factors influencing intended compliance with the stay indoors recommendation in a nuclear disaster

In a nuclear emergency, evacuation of people from potentially affected areas is one essential measure for protecting them from radiation exposure. However, the occurrence of shadow evacuations, which is assumed to be frequent during a nuclear disaster due to people's general instinct to avoid the risk of radiation exposure, hinders the implementation of evacuation. In this study, a questionnaire survey was conducted with a populated city located around a nuclear power plant to investigate whether people would comply with the recommendation to stay indoors instead of evacuating during a nuclear disaster. This study also identified the factors that could influence people's compliance intention and statistically analyzed the relationships among these factors. The results of the analyses suggested that a person's confidence in the nuclear emergency response organizations and expectations of others' compliance with the recommendation were two variables that were most significantly associated with respondents' compliance with the stay indoors recommendation. Moreover, households having minor family members were found to be less likely to comply with this recommendation. Based on these findings, practical intervention measures and policy implications for preventing shadow evacuations during such disasters are suggested and discussed.