Policies for alcohol restriction and their association with interpersonal violence: A time-series analysis of homicides in Cali, Colombia

Álvaro I. Sánchez; Andrés Villaveces; Robert T. Krafty; Taeyoung Park; Harold B. Weiss; Anthony Fabio; Juan Carlos Puyana; María I. Gutiérrez

doi:10.1093/ije/dyr051

Policies for alcohol restriction and their association with interpersonal violence: A time-series analysis of homicides in Cali, Colombia

Álvaro I. Sánchez, Andrés Villaveces, Robert T. Krafty, Taeyoung Park, Harold B. Weiss, Anthony Fabio, Juan Carlos Puyana, María I. Gutiérrez

Department of Applied Statistics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

40 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Cali, Colombia, has a high incidence of interpersonal violence deaths. Various alcohol control policies have been implemented to reduce alcohol-related problems. The objective of this study was to determine whether different alcohol control policies were associated with changes in the incidence rate of homicides. Methods: Ecologic study conducted during 2004-08 using a time-series design. Policies were implemented with variations in hours of restriction of sales and consumption of alcohol. Most restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 2 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 446 non-consecutive days. Moderately restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 3 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 1277 non-consecutive days. Lax policies prohibited alcohol between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 104 non-consecutive days. In conditional autoregressive negative binomial regressions, rates of homicides and unintentional injury deaths (excluding traffic events) were compared between different periods of days when different policies were in effect. Results: There was an increased risk of homicides in periods when the moderately restrictive policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.15, 90% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.26, P=0.012], and there was an even higher risk of homicides in periods when the lax policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect (IRR 1.42, 90% CI 1.26-1.61, P<0.001). Less restrictive policies were not associated with increased risk of unintentional injury deaths. Conclusion: Extended hours of sales and consumption of alcohol were associated with increased risk of homicides. Strong restrictions on alcohol availability could reduce the incidence of interpersonal violence events in communities where homicides are high. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Original language	English
Article number	dyr051
Pages (from-to)	1037-1046
Number of pages	10
Journal	International journal of epidemiology
Volume	40
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyr051
Publication status	Published - 2011 Aug

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the John E. Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health [D43 TW007560 01] and in part the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at the

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Epidemiology

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1093/ije/dyr051

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Sánchez, Á. I., Villaveces, A., Krafty, R. T., Park, T., Weiss, H. B., Fabio, A., Puyana, J. C., & Gutiérrez, M. I. (2011). Policies for alcohol restriction and their association with interpersonal violence: A time-series analysis of homicides in Cali, Colombia. International journal of epidemiology, 40(4), 1037-1046. Article dyr051. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyr051

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title = "Policies for alcohol restriction and their association with interpersonal violence: A time-series analysis of homicides in Cali, Colombia",

abstract = "Background: Cali, Colombia, has a high incidence of interpersonal violence deaths. Various alcohol control policies have been implemented to reduce alcohol-related problems. The objective of this study was to determine whether different alcohol control policies were associated with changes in the incidence rate of homicides. Methods: Ecologic study conducted during 2004-08 using a time-series design. Policies were implemented with variations in hours of restriction of sales and consumption of alcohol. Most restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 2 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 446 non-consecutive days. Moderately restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 3 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 1277 non-consecutive days. Lax policies prohibited alcohol between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 104 non-consecutive days. In conditional autoregressive negative binomial regressions, rates of homicides and unintentional injury deaths (excluding traffic events) were compared between different periods of days when different policies were in effect. Results: There was an increased risk of homicides in periods when the moderately restrictive policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.15, 90% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.26, P=0.012], and there was an even higher risk of homicides in periods when the lax policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect (IRR 1.42, 90% CI 1.26-1.61, P<0.001). Less restrictive policies were not associated with increased risk of unintentional injury deaths. Conclusion: Extended hours of sales and consumption of alcohol were associated with increased risk of homicides. Strong restrictions on alcohol availability could reduce the incidence of interpersonal violence events in communities where homicides are high. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association",

author = "S{\'a}nchez, {{\'A}lvaro I.} and Andr{\'e}s Villaveces and Krafty, {Robert T.} and Taeyoung Park and Weiss, {Harold B.} and Anthony Fabio and Puyana, {Juan Carlos} and Guti{\'e}rrez, {Mar{\'i}a I.}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the John E. Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health [D43 TW007560 01] and in part the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at the",

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T2 - A time-series analysis of homicides in Cali, Colombia

AU - Sánchez, Álvaro I.

AU - Villaveces, Andrés

AU - Krafty, Robert T.

AU - Park, Taeyoung

AU - Weiss, Harold B.

AU - Fabio, Anthony

AU - Puyana, Juan Carlos

AU - Gutiérrez, María I.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the John E. Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health [D43 TW007560 01] and in part the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at the

PY - 2011/8

Y1 - 2011/8

N2 - Background: Cali, Colombia, has a high incidence of interpersonal violence deaths. Various alcohol control policies have been implemented to reduce alcohol-related problems. The objective of this study was to determine whether different alcohol control policies were associated with changes in the incidence rate of homicides. Methods: Ecologic study conducted during 2004-08 using a time-series design. Policies were implemented with variations in hours of restriction of sales and consumption of alcohol. Most restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 2 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 446 non-consecutive days. Moderately restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 3 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 1277 non-consecutive days. Lax policies prohibited alcohol between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 104 non-consecutive days. In conditional autoregressive negative binomial regressions, rates of homicides and unintentional injury deaths (excluding traffic events) were compared between different periods of days when different policies were in effect. Results: There was an increased risk of homicides in periods when the moderately restrictive policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.15, 90% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.26, P=0.012], and there was an even higher risk of homicides in periods when the lax policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect (IRR 1.42, 90% CI 1.26-1.61, P<0.001). Less restrictive policies were not associated with increased risk of unintentional injury deaths. Conclusion: Extended hours of sales and consumption of alcohol were associated with increased risk of homicides. Strong restrictions on alcohol availability could reduce the incidence of interpersonal violence events in communities where homicides are high. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

AB - Background: Cali, Colombia, has a high incidence of interpersonal violence deaths. Various alcohol control policies have been implemented to reduce alcohol-related problems. The objective of this study was to determine whether different alcohol control policies were associated with changes in the incidence rate of homicides. Methods: Ecologic study conducted during 2004-08 using a time-series design. Policies were implemented with variations in hours of restriction of sales and consumption of alcohol. Most restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 2 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 446 non-consecutive days. Moderately restrictive policies prohibited alcohol between 3 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 1277 non-consecutive days. Lax policies prohibited alcohol between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m. for 104 non-consecutive days. In conditional autoregressive negative binomial regressions, rates of homicides and unintentional injury deaths (excluding traffic events) were compared between different periods of days when different policies were in effect. Results: There was an increased risk of homicides in periods when the moderately restrictive policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.15, 90% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.26, P=0.012], and there was an even higher risk of homicides in periods when the lax policies were in effect compared with periods when the most restrictive policies were in effect (IRR 1.42, 90% CI 1.26-1.61, P<0.001). Less restrictive policies were not associated with increased risk of unintentional injury deaths. Conclusion: Extended hours of sales and consumption of alcohol were associated with increased risk of homicides. Strong restrictions on alcohol availability could reduce the incidence of interpersonal violence events in communities where homicides are high. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

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Policies for alcohol restriction and their association with interpersonal violence: A time-series analysis of homicides in Cali, Colombia

Abstract

Bibliographical note

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

UN SDGs

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