Liver stiffness-based risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Jae Seung Lee, Dong Hyun Sinn, Soo Young Park, Hye Jung Shin, Hye Won Lee, Beom Kyung Kim, Jun Yong Park, Do Young Kim, Sang Hoon Ahn, Joo Hyun Oh, Jung Il Lee, Seung Up Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. We established and validated a liver stiffness (LS)-based risk prediction model for HCC development in patients with NAFLD. A total of 2666 and 467 patients with NAFLD were recruited in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. NAFLD was defined as controlled attenuated parameter ≥238 dB/m by transient elastography. Over a median of 64.6 months, HCC developed in 22 (0.8%) subjects in the training cohort. Subjects who developed HCC were older and had higher prevalence of diabetes and cirrhosis, lower platelet count, and higher AST levels compared to those who did not develop HCC (all p < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, age ≥60 years (hazard ratio (HR) = 9.1), platelet count <150 × 103/µL (HR = 3.7), and LS ≥9.3 kPa (HR = 13.8) were independent predictors (all p < 0.05) that were used to develop a risk prediction model for HCC development, together with AST ≥34 IU/L. AUCs for predicting HCC development at 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.948, 0.947, and 0.939, respectively. This model was validated in the validation cohort (AUC 0.777, 0.781, and 0.784 at 2, 3, and 5 years, respectively). The new risk prediction model for NAFLD-related HCC development showed acceptable performance in the training and validation cohorts.

Original languageEnglish
Article number4567
JournalCancers
Volume13
Issue number18
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Sept

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Liver stiffness-based risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this