Inter-Model Differences in Future Summer Onset Over the Northern High Latitudes

Bo Joung Park, Seung Ki Min, Young Hee Ryu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Climate models consistently project a significant advance of summer onset over the Northern high latitude lands in the late 21st century. However, large inter-model differences exist, in particular, over Northwest Russia, Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada. This study quantifies the influences of background global warming rate and regional snow-albedo feedback on the inter-model spreads in summer onset projections. Linear regression analysis reveals that models' transient climate response (TCR) values explain around 39%–50% of regional inter-model variances, indicating the dominant contribution of models' global warming rate. When removing TCR influences, the summer onset and snow cover exhibit significant inter-model correlations over Bering Sea region and Northeastern Canada, explaining 25%–30% of the inter-model variances. These results suggest that global climate sensitivity as well as regional snow-albedo feedback need to be considered for reliable projection of future summer season timing at regional scales.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2022GL100739
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number24
Publication statusPublished - 2022 Dec 28

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences


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