Growth curve analysis applied to ammunition deterioration

Ammunition deterioration during storage has considerable economic consequences. Thus, a reliable prediction model for the ammunition deterioration rate is necessary for long-term procurement and maintenance planning. The purpose of this paper is to formulate a prediction model for ammunition deterioration rates in terms of concurrent characteristics such as depot condition and vendor information using a random effects growth curve analysis. The resulting prediction model can be used to determine the appropriate time for reorder or renovation of ammunition before the quality reaches unacceptable levels. A two-stage analysis is used to estimate parameters involved in the prediction model. Necessary estimation methods are discussed and an example is given to illustrate the procedure.