Forecasting Naphtha Price Crack Using Multiple Regression Analysis

Chaeeun Sung, Hweeung Kwon, Jinsuk Lee, Haesub Yoon, Il Moon

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

11 Citations (Scopus)


The price of naphtha depends on that of crude oil as naphtha is produced by refining crude oil. Naphtha plays an important role as one of basic petrochemicals for downstream products. Large fluctuation of naphtha price has been intensified along with recent political unrest of Middle East Asia and the growing naphtha demand in developing countries. Thus forecasting naphtha price is becoming more uncertain. The development of models for forecasting naphtha crack (price difference between naphtha and crude oil) will help minimize any loss from naphtha price variations. This study is concerned with the derivation of a set of major parameters affecting naphtha prices and the identification of the most dominating factors. We proposed a model for forecasting naphtha crack based on statistical approach and multiple regression analysis, and R 2 was 651. .Naphtha price depends mainly on Asia supply and demand of naphtha as well as naphtha substitute and margin. Actual and predicted variations of naphtha crack were also analyzed. The proposed modeling approach can be extended to forecast prices of other downstream chemicals such as LPG and NGL.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationComputer Aided Chemical Engineering
PublisherElsevier B.V.
Number of pages5
Publication statusPublished - 2012

Publication series

NameComputer Aided Chemical Engineering
ISSN (Print)1570-7946

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General Chemical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications


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