Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling

Jiyeon Suh, Jae Ki Choi, Jeehyun Lee, Sun Hee Park

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)


In South Korea, despite the implementation of a universal single-dose vaccination program for children aged 12–15 months in 2005, the varicella incidence rate remains significant. Prior case-control studies have reported that currently used varicella vaccines are extremely inefficacious. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) by fitting a dynamic transmission model to age-specific varicella incidence data from 2007 to 2015 and available vaccine coverage data. The initial vaccine efficacy and primary failure rates were estimated to be 61.1% and 38.9%, respectively. The average duration of protection was 21.4 years. The mean VE [(1-relative risk) %] for the simulated data of 2004–2014 birth cohorts decreased from 59.8% to 50.7% over 9 years. This mathematical modeling study demonstrated that the single-dose vaccine exhibits moderate effectiveness, and a high proportion of primary failure could be a main cause of breakthrough infections. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy should be considered.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2085468
JournalHuman Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Immunology and Allergy
  • Immunology
  • Pharmacology


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