Asymmetric phase shifts in U.S. industrial production cycles

Yongsung Chang, Sunoong Hwang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)


We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)116-133
Number of pages18
JournalReview of Economics and Statistics
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Mar 1

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics


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