Alpha-Fetoprotein, Des-Gamma-Carboxy Prothrombin, and Modified RECIST Response as Predictors of Survival after Transarterial Radioembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic role of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), des-gamma-carboxy protein (DCP), and modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after transarterial radioembolization (TARE). Materials and Methods: During 2009–2016, 63 patients with AFP >20 ng/mL, DCP >20 mAU/mL, and Child-Pugh class A who were treated with TARE were evaluated using landmark and risk-of-death method after TARE. Both resin microspheres (n = 46) and glass microspheres (n = 17) were used. AFP or DCP response was defined as more than 50% decrease from baseline. mRECIST response was defined as complete or partial response. Median age was 60 years, and the proportion of male sex was 77.8% (n = 49). The proportions of patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages A, B, and C were 7.9% (n = 5), 46.0% (n = 29), and 46.0% (n = 29), respectively. Results: At the 3-month landmark, AFP, DCP, and mRECIST responders lived longer than nonresponders (median overall survival, 75.8 vs 7.6 months for AFP; 75.8 vs 7.1 months for DCP; and 75.8 vs 10.0 months for mRECIST; all P <.05). The 6-month risk of death at the 3-month landmark was statistically different only between DCP responders and nonresponders (P =.002). In multivariate analysis, age less than 70 years (P =.024), absence of distant metastasis (P =.049), DCP response (P =.003), and mRECIST response (P =.003) were independent predictors for overall survival at the 3-month landmark after TARE. Conclusions: AFP, DCP, and mRECIST responders showed better prognosis than nonresponders after TARE, and DCP response was a more potent predictor than AFP response. Tumor marker response, as well as radiologic response, may be useful to predict post-TARE survival.